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年以上就没有亏损的可能……(反过来说,就是 100% 有盈利)", "category": "text", "attachment_id": "", "order": 20, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": null }, { "id": 14137, "course_id": 710, "content": "3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93", "order": 21, "duration": 15770, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.405Z", "attachment": { "id": 95523, "attachment_id": "3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93", "name": "3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3", "size": 126189, "duration": 15770, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.663Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.4Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3767d3f6-9059-4972-b882-100bbdedcf93.mp3" } }, { "id": 14138, "course_id": 710, "content": "所谓 “长期”,应该是 “至少 15 年”。", "category": "text", "attachment_id": "", "order": 22, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": null }, { "id": 14139, "course_id": 710, "content": "4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b", "order": 23, "duration": 16460, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.653Z", "attachment": { "id": 95524, "attachment_id": "4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b", "name": "4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3", "size": 131757, "duration": 16460, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.666Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.648Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/4f2e297d-e2fb-493d-bd60-0928f157f39b.mp3" } }, { "id": 14140, "course_id": 710, "content": "2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d", "order": 24, "duration": 18020, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.895Z", "attachment": { "id": 95525, "attachment_id": "2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d", "name": "2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3", "size": 144237, "duration": 18020, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.668Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:41.89Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/2e2ba0bc-e41d-422b-8e8a-1c1c84ac8b3d.mp3" } }, { "id": 14141, "course_id": 710, "content": "d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.jpg", "category": "image", "attachment_id": "d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0", "order": 25, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": { "id": 95526, "attachment_id": "d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0", "name": "d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.jpg", "thumb": "", "raw": "d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.jpg", "size": 130409, "duration": 0, "mime_type": "image/jpeg", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.67Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:32:02.318Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.webp", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.jpg", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/d29709cc-ebc9-4468-a9ac-fc524e494be0.jpg" } }, { "id": 14142, "course_id": 710, "content": "d618b647-83c2-448a-9aaf-3ec711df26cf.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "d618b647-83c2-448a-9aaf-3ec711df26cf", "order": 26, "duration": 52700, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.147Z", "attachment": { "id": 95527, "attachment_id": "d618b647-83c2-448a-9aaf-3ec711df26cf", "name": "d618b647-83c2-448a-9aaf-3ec711df26cf.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "d618b647-83c2-448a-9aaf-3ec711df26cf.mp3", "size": 421677, "duration": 52700, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.672Z", "updated_at": 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"https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/62c37fd0-55b5-47bd-b21b-80a6fdbbd222.webp", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/62c37fd0-55b5-47bd-b21b-80a6fdbbd222.jpg", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/62c37fd0-55b5-47bd-b21b-80a6fdbbd222.jpg" } }, { "id": 14144, "course_id": 710, "content": "b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7", "order": 28, "duration": 27100, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.378Z", "attachment": { "id": 95529, "attachment_id": "b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7", "name": "b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3", "size": 216813, "duration": 27100, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.677Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.373Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/b609896f-274e-4f09-a016-e39b3dcd74a7.mp3" } }, { "id": 14145, "course_id": 710, "content": "3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7", "order": 29, "duration": 43390, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.611Z", "attachment": { "id": 95530, "attachment_id": "3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7", "name": "3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3", "size": 347181, "duration": 43390, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.679Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.607Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/3940d105-35ef-4a23-b3ba-7fa43ce0a7b7.mp3" } }, { "id": 14146, "course_id": 710, "content": "所谓 “长期”,应该是 “至少 11 年”。", "category": "text", "attachment_id": "", "order": 30, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": null }, { "id": 14147, "course_id": 710, "content": "7b3bb10e-72f9-48e8-9414-4e76e9fc34f1.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "7b3bb10e-72f9-48e8-9414-4e76e9fc34f1", "order": 31, "duration": 17160, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:42.86Z", "attachment": { "id": 95531, "attachment_id": "7b3bb10e-72f9-48e8-9414-4e76e9fc34f1", "name": "7b3bb10e-72f9-48e8-9414-4e76e9fc34f1.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": 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"999183d2-175f-4e81-9d93-ee466af5b10c.mp3", "size": 231789, "duration": 28970, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.693Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.254Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/999183d2-175f-4e81-9d93-ee466af5b10c.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/999183d2-175f-4e81-9d93-ee466af5b10c.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/999183d2-175f-4e81-9d93-ee466af5b10c.mp3" } }, { "id": 14153, "course_id": 710, "content": "> ##### 1. 技术进步和生产效率的提升\n>\n> 随着信息技术、物流系统和自动化的发展,企业恢复产能、对接市场需求的速度变得更快。而且越来越多资产是数字化的,不像传统工厂设备那样需要长期投入,恢复运营更灵活。例如,虽然2005 年以后整体生产率增速放缓,但疫情期间的远程办公、云服务让很多公司在短时间内就恢复了盈利。\n>\n> ##### 2. 服务型经济占比提高\n>\n> 服务业不像制造业那样需要大量原材料和库存,重启速度快、反应灵活。服务需求也容易被激发,因此 GDP 在冲击后能迅速反弹。在美国,服务业在经济中的比重从 1950 年代的不到 55%,提升到如今的超过 80%。\n>\n> ##### 3. 全球供应链与金融市场高度互联\n>\n> 全球资本和商品流动变得更加高效,企业可以跨国调配资源,应对局部冲击的能力增强。这样即便一个地区受影响,其他地区可以迅速补上。当然,这种互联也可能让危机 “传染” 更快,但整体来看,有助于平均复苏速度的提升。\n>\n> ##### 4. 政府政策更有经验、工具更多\n>\n> 现代货币与财政政策更成熟,比如美联储会通过提前预告、量化宽松等手段维稳;政府也能快速启动失业补助等 “自动稳定器”。现实例子是,2020 年疫情爆发后,美国采取了财政和货币 “双宽松” 政策,帮助股市在仅 126 天内重回历史高点。\n>\n> ##### 5. 投资者行为和市场结构的变化\n>\n> 现在很多资金是通过指数基金被动投资的,这种结构在市场下跌时不会大规模恐慌抛售;高频交易和电子撮合也提升了市场流动性,减少极端恐慌。不过,这也可能在某些时候放大短期波动,出现 “闪崩” 等现象。", "category": "text", "attachment_id": "", "order": 37, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": null }, { "id": 14154, "course_id": 710, "content": "5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac", "order": 38, "duration": 38900, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.497Z", "attachment": { "id": 95537, "attachment_id": "5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac", "name": "5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3", "size": 311277, "duration": 38900, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.695Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.492Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/5ba66c9e-1f04-46b2-a4fc-15996eade0ac.mp3" } }, { "id": 14155, "course_id": 710, "content": "6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d", "order": 39, "duration": 34460, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.742Z", "attachment": { "id": 95538, "attachment_id": "6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d", "name": "6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3", "thumb": "", "raw": "6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3", "size": 275757, "duration": 34460, "mime_type": "audio/mp3", "location": "aliyun_oss", "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.697Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.737Z", "url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3", "raw_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3", "thumb_url": "https://bandu-resources.songy.info/7000104757/6b4fcbf5-9e67-46c3-bed7-d17d2f78675d.mp3" } }, { "id": 14156, "course_id": 710, "content": "所谓 “长期”,应该是 “至少 10 年”。", "category": "text", "attachment_id": "", "order": 40, "duration": 1000000000, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "attachment": null }, { "id": 14157, "course_id": 710, "content": "27f698b8-9667-412e-b546-6669642441d4.mp3", "category": "audio", "attachment_id": "27f698b8-9667-412e-b546-6669642441d4", "order": 41, "duration": 42530, "created_at": "2025-07-26T07:31:36.706Z", "updated_at": "2025-07-26T07:33:44.988Z", "attachment": { "id": 95539, 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